Please please please don't call me a negative-nanny (or reasonable facsimile), but being a mellow Friday night, watching a bit of WGC event (via PVR) and some of the Puerto Rico event, and wine being part of the equation, I began thinking about Mike's future scenarios, re exempt status on the PGA Tour.

I'm sure there's a thread on this somewhere? ... over the past months there has been some discussion about Mike being "guaranteed" TWO full years exempt status based on his PGA Lifetime Moneylist status. Mike currently 15th. Safe?

... I think you know where this is going, right?

When I look at that list, and the group immediately behind Mike, and then look at the 2011 PGA Money List I see 7-9 guys that could pass Mike very quickly ... even this year, assuming Mike continues to struggle, a la '2011 and 2012 ytd'.

Going forward, it is then probable Mike will use the Lifetime Top50 exemption in 2013. Agreed? So that leads us to the possibility that Mike continues to struggle (in 2013) makes a few cuts, earns some cash, but is a long way from Top125. Is it possible that at the end of 2013 Mike could actually be in jeopardy of falling below the Top25 Lifetime (and losing that exemption)?

Beyond those right behind Mike, that made significant $$$ last year, you can look all the way down to 36th and a guy like Hunter Mahan ... $3.5M last year, and talked about as getting better, so maybe $8M+ in 2012-2013, that would move him well up there ... close to Mike, or past him?

I dunno ... just speculating on a Friday night and hoping Mike soon starts playing to a level that will make this thread redundant.

Good points to be made. Lets hope over the next bunch of months or so he gets things in order and he won't have to worry about that threat. God forbid we go 24 more months of dissecting Mikes game at the pace we have been without good things happening. I think Mike himself would be absolutlely "Mad" by then.

The only thing thats important is what the pgatour rules allows.

There are currently two exemptions, top 25 and top 50, if you look at the exemptions page ( http://www.pgatour.com/r/player_exemptions/index.html ) , it almost seems to imply you have to use top 50 first, then top 25.

If thats the case, then yes, Mike is in jeopardy for two years of exemptions. I give it 50/50 hes not in top 25 at the end of 2014. (0 chance for end of this year)

Now if he can use top 25 first, the he would use that for next year, and still be 100% safe for being in top 50 for 2014.

And if youre still concernced, start cheering for non-Pga members to win the big money events, or to cheer for (yes you heard me right), Figjam or Tiger....

I just assumed he could use his top 25 exemption first. If he has to use his top 50 exemption, it might have been better for him to use it this year and then use the top 25 next year. At least he would get to use both. Now it looks like he will only be able to use one.

I could cheer for figjam. I have before and I might cheer again some day. But cheer for Eldridge? Not even while holding my nose could I manage that one.

On a brighter note it looks like Mike has a pretty active schedule up to and beyond Augusta. Getting out regularly and competing has to be good for his game. Here's hoping the next 6 weeks gives his confidence a shot in the arm too. Go get 'em Mike.

yeah, I checked out your link and I see it the same way ... you have to use the Top50 Lifetime first ... then the Top25 MoneyList (if necessary) and IF you are still on it at years end (2013 for example).

Soooooooo ...
* holding my nose here* Cmon woods, you can do it ... GO Figjam, climb that leaderboard !

and Booooooo's and fu's to the likes of Sabatini, Appleby, Allenby, Mahan, and the rest of you sorry bunch of wanna-pass-Mike hackers..

another possible scenario, if Mike has to use top 50 first, is do the same thing next year as this year, that is use 7 sponsors exemptions and play on the Euro tour (he still exempt), then use the top 50 in 2014.

Probably all depends on whether or not Mike (and his team) think he'll still be top 25 at the end of 2014. Its gonna be close...

that's an interesting thought, and for sure would be a possibility one would think. But wouldn't it be nice if Mike would suddenly find his game, make a few cuts, and allow us to 'deep-6' this thread.

in the meantime, I would like to take this opportunity to add to the Booooo's, and Fu's list the names of: Ogilvy, Kelly (hate to do it, cuz I like the guy), CHIII, ZJohnson, and chubby Campbell, all of whom pose some realistic thread to passing Mike within the time frame we are talking about. No doubt, there are others lurking

There's a few other names, mostly oldies (and no long goodies), who shall escape our wrath ... for now.

the money he might make on the Euro Tour, does it count?

unless the event is co-sponsored with the pgatour (aka wgc or the british open), no.